Taking Shape

We’re finally in scenario land! There are too many permutations to discuss them all but I can list some likely paths to the playoffs for most teams.

Clinched: MBC, ZWC, Michael Ohers Conservators. The Conservators have no realistic shot at the bye and are just trying to avoid a matchup against whichever of the other two doesn’t get it. I think they both go 12-3 and are within 20 points at the moment so its anyone’s game.

Eliminated: PP Hurts, and sorry but I’m putting Jeff in here who at 4-8 needs to catch 4 of 5 5-7/6-6 teams.

Battling:

IPB - Win one more and in. Lose both and hope your 3 non-eliminated division mates don’t win both.

Good on Paper - Win two and in. Win 1 and probably in.

Token Female - Break your 4 game loss streak. Damn this team started 5-0 and has two rough matchups to finish. Could sneak in with 1 more win.

Hamas Rockets - Need to win 2 because you ain’t winning any PF tie breakers, but you get to play two 5-7 teams to finish.

Fields of Dreams - Win out and in. Lose 1 and hope 6-8 can sneak in because you have at least ~60 more points for over every other team battling.

Los Gatos Kitties - Win out and hope FoD doesn’t win both or Good on Paper doesn’t win one.

RIP Kirko Chainz - Win out, hope 7-7 gets you in clean because you’re only going to win the points for battle against IPB and Hamas Rockets but could maybe catch Token Female (26 points behind).

Matchups

Michael Ohers Conservators (95.44) maintianed his toilet bowl champ title this week against I Pickens Boogies (85.98). The highest scoring player in this matchup was Jared Goff (18.18) who buttered his fingers while buttering the rolls, fumbling three times on Thanksgiving. The Conservators’ highest scorer was Garrett Wilson (17.4) who stole a decent day with a garbage time TD late on Black Friday. Will Levis (7.1) for IPB was largely unecessary against the moribund Carolina Panthers, but neither was the Conservators’ Tyjae Spears (1.7) thanks to Derrick “King” Henry (more on him later). IPB saw a serviceable game from Isaiah Likely (8) who looked much faster than Mark Andrews had but was not targetted much in the redzone. Also not seeing redzone work was Gus Edwards (4.7). On their first trip to the redzone Sunday night, Justice Hill saw three straight carries, setting up a 3 yard TD to Zay Flowers. In a 10 point matchup where The Conservators had Lamar Jackson (14.98), a Gus TD in lieu of Lamar could have been the difference. Also making a difference, however, was Austin Ekeler (9.4, RB26) possibly hitting his fantasy cliff, and the Cowboys’ DaRon Bland nabbing his 5th pick six… in the last 11 games. Bland now has more TDs. That is more than Davante Adams, Hollywood Brown, Justin Jefferson (albeit he only played 5 games), DK Metcalf, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, or Michael Pittman Jr. Scenarios are in the introduction, but this one hurts IPB who could have been 2 games ahead for the bye with only 2 to play.

Fields of Dreams (156.18) swept the Ruffing bowl this year against Team Jeff (121.72). Team Jeff started Thanksgivng with two studs (Pollard - 22.3; Lamb - 17.3) and two duds (Brian Robinson Jr. - 8.4; Logan Thomas - 3.5). The studs were answered by Mike Evans (25) and King Henry (20.6). Henry has some way of coming on late in the fantasy season. Entering the game with 4 rushing TDs on the season, Henry scored twice more on the ground on Sunday and beat the Panthers so badly they fired their coach. FoD’s lowest scoring player was Taysom Hill (8.1) and they were left down only 17.52 points with Fields, DJ Moore, and the Ravens DST remaining. Combining each player’s worst performance this year totaled 15.42 making it not impossible for Jeff to hang on, but the Ravens embarassed the Chargers Sunday night and left with 19 points. The lowest the Ravens defense has scored this year is 5 points which I’d call a pretty safe floor, especially compared to the 32nd ranked Washington Commanders who’ve fallen below that 7 time with 5 of those marks 0 or negative. Team Jeff still sits as the highest points against by more than 40 points with opponents averaging 137 per week. Facing me next week, lets hope that trend continues…

Los Gatos Kitties (156.28) kept their playoff hopes alive this week in the Cody Bowl against RIP Kirko Chainz (113.18). Cody had some good players but unfortunately this week Cody was better. Cody saw Waddle’s (19.4) second best game of the year and his best in a game without a TD, but Tua (9.82) had a rough finish thanks to two turnovers. On the other side of the same game, Tim Boyle in merciful relief of Zach Wilson still only produced one decent fantasy day in Garrett Wilson, leaving Breece Hall (11.9) wanting despite catching 7 check downs. Puka Nacua (6.7) was largely unecessary as Kyren Williams accounted for 37% of the Rams offense and 50% of their TDs. Cody, meanwhile, had a pair of duds in DK Metcalf (6.2) and Courtland Sutton (9.1) Sutton now only has 3 games this year without a receiving TD while Metcalf only has 3 with one. Cody stuck with LaPorta (17.7) and was rewarded despite not scoring above 8 points since week 8. Bijan Robinson (27.3) also may have turned a corner as the Falcons actually scored some TDs on offense this week. Rookie sensation CJ Stroud (30.86) kept it rolling this week and Jordan Love (26.62) channeled the Green Bay football Gods to ensure balance in the universe and a Lions loss on Thanksgiving day.

Zach White Commanders (186.62) deployed the anti-aircraft missiles this week against Hamas Rockets (115.6). The Rockets started strong with Dak Prescott (32.24) who is on a heater averaging over 28 points per game in his last 6. Bryce Young (8.06), however, is on the opposite of a heater, cracking 15 points only a single time this season. Leaving Rhamondre Stevenson (21.7) and Chuba Hubbard (20.2) on the bench didn’t help, but there wasn’t much chance against one of this league’s two super teams. The Commanders were led by a heroic effort from Josh Allen (40.66) who rushed for 81 yards and 2 TDs while throwing for over 300 yards in the pouring rain. Miscommunicating with Gabe Davis on overtime against a zero blitz, Allen could have finished the week with a 5th total TD. Kyren Williams (38.4) in his first game back from injured reserve walked all over the Cardinals. The Rams rushed for 228 yards naturally setting up the Steelers to go sub 100 next week. The lowest scorer for ZWC was the Titans Defense who as the 28th ranked defense finished with over 10 points for only the 3rd time this season.

Mr. Big Chest (174.22) dropped their 3rd straight 170+ point week this week against PP Hurts (134.8). PP Hurts put up a fight trying to play spoiler led by their name’s sake Jalen Hurts (35.5) dropping 5 total TDs despite only scoring 6 fantasy points in the first half. Raheem Mostert (21.4) also saw the bulk of the carries with DeVon Achane still sitting out and Zay Flowers (23.2) added a rushing TD late instead of pulling the Nick Chubb and going down at the 1 to run out the clock. Nearly every other player however failed to crack double digits including Joshua Dobbs (8.5) who with 4 interceptions may have played himself out of the starting role. Hot take, only 1 of the INTs was his fault, but 9 points against the Bears and leading to Matt Eberflus’s first NFC North win might do it. MBC keeps stacking points led again by RB1 CMC (30.9) and WR1 Tyreek Hill (25.4). ARSB (18.5) and Keenan (22.6) are Mr. Young Consistent and Mr. Old Consistent while looking great and Sam Howell (18.3) is Mr. Consistent while looking awful. You don’t have to win in the NFL however to win at fantasy as 5 of players appeared in losing efforts.

We saved the best for last with a Sunday night miracle in the matchup of Good on Paper and Token Female. Jonathan Taylor (21.1) rumbled for 2 TDs against the Bucs in what might have been his last game of the year thanks to a thumb injury. Stefon Diggs (19.4) and James Cook (16) also showed up in the shootout with Philly, but Token Female left Gab Davis (22.5) on the bench (though he hasn’t hit >10 since week 8). Dhop (7.9) rode the Derrick Henry train with the rest of the Titans while Deebo Samuel (22.4) scored on the ground. Good on Paper was led by Kyler Murray (20.44) who scored a rushing TD for the 3rd straight game and Isiah Pacheco (25.9) who despite averaging 3.7 yards per carry was force fed goaline carries and caught 5 passes. Good on Paper also left a pair of duds on the bench in Rashee Rice (24.7) and Christian Watson (20.4). Heading into Monday night, it was Justin Herbert for Token Female with a 14.84 deficit. The Ravens are a stout defense and were the 2nd worst matchup for fantasy QBs heading into the week. Herbert fought hard all game trying to will his team to a win and was down 3 at the two minute warning, still a few points short. Two straight incompletions handed the ball to the Ravens but the Chargers still had all 3 timeouts. On 3rd down with 1:36 remaining, Zay Flowers housed an end around, deciding not to go down and run out the clock. Herbert with the ball back started the drive with a 21 yard pass to Keenan Allen, leaving Token Female 12 passing yards short of a win and Herbert with a 1st & 10 with 1:30 to play. Two incompletions and a sack setup 4th & 19. On 4th down the Ravens blitzed with Clowney coming unblocked off the edge making Herbert’s pass too far behind Keenan and drawing both fantasy teams to 6-6.

Trades / Waiver Wire

WE HAVE A TRADE. I REPEAT: WE HAVE A TRADE. I had to dig through old posts to remember how to freaking format the darn table.

Good on Paper Michael Ohers Conservators
Lamar Jackson Matt Stafford
Garrett Wilson Cooper Kupp
Kenneth Walker III Jahmyr Gibbs

Now that the trade is final, I’m pretty darn happy to get to move on from KW3 who has a brutal playoff schedule. The Rams stack faces two tough defenses before week 15 but I’m clinched baby. Please lord don’t let Kupp get injured again. Sad to have lost Garrett Wilson though, I like that guy even if he did play at Ohio State.

There were only 3 claims made and the Muth was two of them (going to MBC for $13). Steelers can throw over the middle again so he should be relevant. I heard somewhere before he went to IR, Pat was on pace for like 200 receiving yards for a 17 game season, but he racked up more than half that last game.

Picks

Last week I went 5-1 for 44-28 which is the same amount of losses I have in the other league… More predictable over here I guess. ESPN projections also went 5-1 for 43-29. Tempted to just pick projections to garuntee a W next week… Nah. This week winners will be: Michael Ohers Conservators, FoD, MBC, ZWC, Los Gatos Kitties, and PP Hurts (Steve starting Jake Browning and 4 players in GB vs. KC which should hit the under)

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