Playoff recap and tonight’s final showdown

I decided to release a playoff recap before tonight’s showdown while there’s still some drama.

Round 1 (Week 15)

Still the Gr8st Show On Paper and Team Tallman Kiss my A$$ sat on their asses with a first round bye.

The first matchup saw Double Consonants (130.5pts) take down Seattle Krakens (72.9pts). A first round playoff exit is a respectable finish for an expansion team to be fair. The Krakens had a tough go with only Aaron Rodgers (23.82pts) and Aaron Jones (15pts) cracking double digits. Week 15 saw the Bucaneers get shutout by the Saints which hurt the Mike Evans (2.4pts) and Gronk (4.8pts). On the other side, Double Consonants got a little too complacent and ignored COVID preventative protocols. Their top 2 WR Jaylen Waddle and Tyler Lockett sat out the game. The waiver wire came to the rescue though with A.J. Green (10.4pts) and rookie sensation, though I didn’t know it then, Amon-Ra St. Brown (23.5pts, his lowest score for the next three weeks). Dem Stillers DST also had their highest score of the season (15pts) because I was in the stands yelling, willing my team to move on to the next round.

In the #3 seed vs. #6 seed matchup, How Do I Butt Stuffed? (131.8pts) took down Red Solo Kupp (99.44pts). Butt Stuffed got a smash performance from Travis Kelce (41.1pts) and close to projection for their other players. Red Solo Kupp had a lot go wrong. Lets start in October when they traded Mahomes (29.6pts in Week 15) and Diggs (13.5pts in Week 15) for Mixon (7pts in Week 15) and Murray (12.58pts in Week 15). Diggs was later traded to Butt Stuffed to be used against him. We’ll find out if it was a good trade in the trade analysis article coming later, but it certainly didn’t help this week. Red Solo Kupp’s bench also exploded this week with Hunter Henry (25.7pts), Russell Gage (23.1pts), and Devin Singletary (16.6pts) smashing projections.

Round 2 (Week 16)

Double Consonants moved on to face Team Tallman Kiss My A\(. Heading into the week, Jaylen Waddle and Tyler Lockett were activated from the COVID list. Furthermore, Jared Goff was put on the COVID list and wouldn't play Week 16. Therefore, I made my potentially championship costing (pending Still the Gr8st Show On Paper's performance tonight) move by droping rookie sensation Amon-Ra St. Brown due to lack of faith in Lions backup QB Tim Boyle. Shoutout to Team Tallman Kiss My A\) for not only picking up St. Brown, but starting him over Van Jefferson (facing the 32nd ranked Minnesota pass defense) and Darnell Mooney. This was likely the difference and Tallman defeated Double Consonants 152.68pts to 133.3pts.

How Do I Butt Stuffed? took on the other side of the bracket against Still the Gr8st Show On Paper. Despite a -5pts performance from the LAC DST against the Texans, Still the Gr8st Show On Paper still dropped 140pts due to some big games by big names. Nick Chubb scored 27.4pts, Deebo Samuel score 28.1pts because he actually caught the ball in Week 16, and Dak Prescott (31.3pts) played highschool quarterback at a private school beating up on a local single A team (WFT). Butt Stuffed was counting on a big game from Tua and Devante Parker on Monday Night against the Saints. The Saints had to start 4th string QB Ian Book so already it was likely a run-friendly game script. Indeed Tua only threw 26 times with 12 of those targets going to Waddle. I remember watching the game in the third quarter, Parker didn’t have a single target and the Dolphins had the lead but were still throwing the ball. The Fanduel line for Parker was 1.5 catches for 12.5 yards and I remember thinking that was a steal. Glad I didn’t act upon it, though I was very tempted early in the fourth when the line was 0.5 catches for 9 yards, since Parker (uninjured btw) ended the game without a single target. When you don’t break 100, you probably aren’t going to win in the playoffs, so Still the Gr8st Show On Paper moves on to the ship winning 140.36pts to 99.58pts.

Round 3 (Week 17)

In the consolation game, How Do I Butt Stuffed? and Double Consonants fought for their money back. Butt Stuffed had a rough go this week as only Darrell Williams (25.7pts) outscored their projection (13.1pts). Ronald Jones, thought to be a smash play against the Jets, exited early with an ankle injury and ended with just 3.7pts. Meanwhile Zeke had a bad game against a stout Cardinals defense and finished with just 4 pts. Double Consonants got double TD games from backup running backs Boston Scott (24.6pts) and A.J. Dillon (22.3pts) with a third backup running back scoring 2 TDs on the bench (Rhamondre Stevenson; 22.7pts). Decent games from Trey Lance (19.06pts) and Patrick Mahomes (20.86pts) were enough to recoup the losses for Double Consonants with afinal score of 131.92 to 91.28.

In the Championship, Team Tallman Kiss My A$$ faces off against Still the Gr8st Show On Paper. Team Tallman got off to a hot start with Tom Brady putting up 4 TDs against the Jets and David Montgomery rushing to 2 TDs in a blowout against the Giants. Gr8st Show on Paper’s early window players took a while to heat up (AJ Brown finishing with only 6.1pts), but Alvin Kamara and the Saints DST lit up the Panthers in the second half finishing with 21 and 17pts respectively. Also, Deebo Samuel caught a 45yd TD pass with less than 10 minutes to play to finish with 17.2pts.

In the late window, Team Tallman got the usual strong game from Cooper Kupp (21.5pts on 6 catches, his second lowest of the season) and the unusual but trending strong game of 35.4pts from Amon-Ra St. Brown. This was the fifth week in a row St. Brown received 11 or 12 targets. St. Brown has 57 targets for 43 catches, 500 yards, and 5 TDs in the last 5 weeks, but is it enough for a Tallman Championship?

Heading into Sunday night, Tallman had a 31.96pt lead with Dalvin Cook still to play. The Vikings had to start Sean Mannion at QB as Kirk Cousins was on the COVID list. The weather was also below 20°F so it was a heavy running gamescript. However, the Green Bay defense was strongly aware of this and shut down the run game early. In addition, they took an early lead, forcing Minnesota to throw the ball 39 times for less than 200 yards. Cook is a part of their passing game, but he only caught three passes for zero net yards.

Now going into Monday Night football, the Steelers take on the Browns in Big Ben’s last home game. Team Tallman has a 36.26pt lead and Still the Gr8st Show On Paper has Dionte Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and Nick Chubb. Things are looking up for Shea. ESPN projects Shea with a 55% chance to win. The Fanduel sportsbook lines project a total of 204 yards and 10 catches for the three players which means Shea would need only 1 TD from one of these players to win. Extrapolating the fanduel TD lines ignoring the house cut gives us an 81.9% chance of at least a single TD. Given the implied probability based on betting line is higher than reality to allow fanduel to make money, the probability of at least a single TD is lower than 82% but probably not by much.

Lets compare this championship matchup to Superbowl 34 with a bit of a role reversal as Kurt Warner and the “Greatest Show on Turf” took on Steve McNair’s Titans. Both teams entered the playoffs with the same record. Contrary to the fantasy matchup, the NFL’s Greatest Show on Turf got out to a 16-0 lead, as Team Tallman did on Sunday. Kurt Warner struggled in the fourth quarter, completing only a single pass, as Team Tallman’s last remaining player Dalvin Cook put up a dud. The Titans came storming back, and with a 7 point defecit had one play to score and keep their hopes alive. Can Still the Gr8st Show On Paper (Steve McNair) punch it in tonight or will they be tackled inches short?

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