The NFL draft is days away. I enjoy watching the NFL draft mostly because its been more than two months since the last football game and more than four until the regular season begins. Its a time for franchises coming off a rough year to look forward to a brighter future as they acquire new stars. Its a time to get excited for this year’s rookie quarterbacks that are always thought to be the answer until they’re not (more on that later). The draft to me reveals a team’s priorities: will they be aggressive to improve immediately, will they stay patient and invest more in the future, and do they trust the veterans on their roster?

This year’s draft seems much less certain than years past. The consensus top players at each position are less clear cut favorites, the quarterbacks are less heralded than usual, and less teams have obvious positional needs. Additionally, I’ve paid little attention to draft coverage recently. This year also demonstrates a separate school of thought in the NFL that current players are much more valuable than draft capital, as 8 teams are without a first round selection (CLE, LAR, DEN, LV, MIA, SF, CHI, IND), and 6 teams have acquired multiple firsts (NYJ, NYG, KC, HOU, GB, DET).

My draft predictions used to be saucier, but I’m going for it anyway. My scoring rules are: 0.5 pt for matching team to the position they select, 2 pt for matching team to the player they select, and 5 pt for correctly guessing a trade (team to draft numer, eg steelers trade up to number 10). Participate here.

Covering every pick is boring and to be honest, most of my picks are pulling from other sports writers’ opinions. I will go over a few picks I have opinions on though. First off, teams finally learn their lesson, and no RBs get drafted in the first round.

#1 - Jacksonville selects Aiden Hutchinson

This is less clear than years past (eg T-Law, Burrow, Murray, Garrett), but its still very likely the edge rusher out of Michigan gets the top nod. Travon Walker (edge) from Georgia is Hutchinson’s greatest competition for the first pick. Jacksonville commands in incomplete roster with needs at offensive line, defensive line, and secondary so really any top prospect here will contribute immediately. Months ago, Evan Neal out of Alabama was the consensus top pick (Fanduel sportsbook odds -150) but has since fallen out of top 5 favor (+1600). Neal was who I had going #1 until some recent research for this article.

#6 - Carolina selects Kenny Pickett

Pickett is the first QB off the board to QB-needy Carolina. QB is the first, second, and third most important position in football. The value of a good QB cannot be overstated. However, this drastically over-values mediocre QBs. Teams will mortgage their futures for hot QB prospects destined to flame out. In my mock draft I have almost every team staying put to get whichever QB falls to them. A first round swing on a QB can be worth it as long as you only spend this year’s first round pick. I doubt Pickett ends up being the best QB in this class but this seems to be the expert consensus as the safest pick.

#5 and #7 - Giants stay put to maximize talent

The Giants have several needs at offensive line and in the secondary, as its rumored their top CB James Bradbury is on the trading block. I have the Giants taking Charles Cross at #5, and Sauce Gardener at #7. Since CAR selected a CB high last year (Jaycee Horn), they believe waiting on Sauce to be the better bet.

#8 - Atlanta selects Jameson Williams

I think Jameson Williams should be the first WR off the board. The dude was electric at Bama, and former teammate DeVonta Smith proves you don’t need to be as big as DK Metcalf to find success. The ACL injury might count against him, but the Falcons know they aren’t Super Bowl bound in 2022.

#12 - Pittsburgh trades up to select their favorite option Malik Willis

The Steelers ignore my feelings on trading up for a QB and shoot their shot, mostly so I can say I included a trade in my mock draft. The Steelers hosted every major QB prospect for a visit during the draft process so I’d be shocked if they don’t go QB in the first. There’s not much that separates this year’s QB prospects but I think I’d like to see Willis go to the Steelers, as he seems the most athletic and I believe in the Steelers’ ability to identify and develop talent.

#30 - Seattle trades back into the first round for Matt Corral

KC has two back to back picks, so they’ll likely trade one of them. I have two QBs still on the board here (Corral and Howell), and SEA/DET/ATL as the only QB-needy teams without one. DET will clean up the first round with Sam Howell, and Baker Mayfield will stay with the Browns, likely staying out of the building until a starter somewhere else gets injured.

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