Football? I barely know ‘er

Happy NFL season to those who celebrate. Viewing daytime games will be a little more difficult for me this year since Riley is much less of a blob and officially hits “toddler” before week 3. The good news for night games is that Riley’s bedtime is 7:30. The bad news is my bedtime is now 10 (at least that’s what I tell myself). I plan to keep up the article again this year and promise it will be #notAI. However, I might use AI to help me get data for my data nugget section which my work will be paying for because we use our personal Github accounts through which our copilot subscriptions are managed. If you have any suggestions for what you would like to keep / would like added let me know.

Also, if you have a minute today, try sliding in here to place your predictions for the 2026 season: 2026_NFL.

Draft recap

Its already Wednesday so I don’t think I’ll bother with charts and graphs showing I sucked at drafting last year and Cody/Emily were great. Lets focus on this year’s draft. This is our fifth year of superflex yet the question of when to draft a QB remains open. Below is the average draft position of the first 12 and 24 QBs:

Year Top 12 avg Top 24 avg
2022 21.2 40.2
2023 14.4 40.2
2024 15 40.6
2025 20.75 56
2026 26.7 51

In 2022, 24 QBs were gone in the first 100 picks. We doubled down the next year selecting 9 QBs in the first 16 picks and two runs on QBs in the 5th and end of the 7th. In 2024, the top QBs were hot, yet we started waiting a while longer for QB2 with no obvious runs on QBs. They were pretty spread through the rest of the draft after the top 12 were gone. Last year, we cooled off a bit on the QBs with the run on QB2s occurring in rounds 9/10. Notably drafted round 7 or later in last year’s draft were Drake Maye (QB2), T-Law (QB4), Darnold (QB13), and Daniel Jones (QB12 in points per game). This year we only had 2 QBs go in the first round compared to at least five in each of the previous four years.

When you draft a player, all you can hope for is they finish better than you drafted them. For example, if you draft the 12th running back, you’re hoping he finishes at RB12 or better. Some notable QBs that I think were drafted apart from their final finish include: Caleb Williams (QB13), Matthew Stafford (QB15), Baker Mayfield (QB20), Malik Willis (QB21), Sam Darnold (QB24), and CJ Stroud (QB26).

Keith’s Top-Notch Team selected back to back QBs to start the draft. This occurred three times before. These three teams all finished 6-8 including Zach last year (Hurts QB8/Mayfield QB12) and Jeremy (Josh Allen QB2/Dak QB31) and Steve (Hurts QB8/Richardson QB25) in 2024. Though unconventional, sometimes in fantasy football you need to zig when everyone else is zagging. With the depression of QBs in the draft this year, maybe that’s where they’ve found an edge, but you can’t miss on these picks or else we’ll see you at 6-8.

The making of a champion

My final article of last year was in week 14 since I was bounced from the playoffs. Lets take a look at Cody’s road to a championship as a potential blueprint for the rest of us. Cody had the first pick in the draft and started with Ja’Marr Chase (WR3) and hit the next turn with Chase Brown (RB8) and Brock Purdy (QB5 in points per game, but only played 9 games). It was a rocky year though for the Bengals duo as Brown was left for dead after the Joe Burrow injury. The next few rounds were uninspiring, yet Cody hit on a pair of RB1s in rounds 9 (Javonte RB11) and 10 (Etienne Jr. RB10).

The tough Bengals start was reflected in Cody’s. Four consecutive losses, including two losses scoring 159 and 144 points, kicked off his 2025 campaign. October hit different, however, with the Bengals’ acquisition of Joe Flacco on October 7th. Cody strung five straight Ws together while averaging a hair under 146 points per week (for five weeks!). Only a few down weeks in the middle of November were just a bump in the road. Cody’s last loss was against Cody Cat in week 12 (November 24th - 289 days ago).

The $1 waiver pickup of Parker Washington in early November solidified his receiving room for the playoff push. Cody’s team was hot in week 15, scoring 157 against Cody Cat. They came down to Earth in week 16 with only 120 points, yet Steve’s team struggled mightily including a 6.9 point dud from Josh Allen against the Browns (a game Buffalo still won 23-20). Cody matched that dud with Jordan Love (3.78), but was carried by Chase Brown’s three TDs on three straight drives to start the second half. In the championship, Cody earned the title, throwing down 177. Brock Purdy had 5 total TDs (37.92) bringing his fantasy playoff average to 32 points For perspective, Josh Allen averaged 21 points as the QB1 for the season. Cody’s Bengals duo combined for 4 TDs against the Cardinals, and the rest of his team mopped up the rest. Cody’s week 17 starting lineup included three free agents (Harold Fannin, Parker Washington, Lions DST) and the rest drafted players.

Here’s a short list of people who contributed to Cody’s championship: Alan for starting Devaughn Vele instead of Christian Watson week 14 (otherwise Emily would have been champ), the Browns for trading Joe Flacco to the Bengals mid season, Dave for dropping Parker Washington, all of us for passing on Javonte/Etienne, the Eagles for scheming Dallas Goedert 11 TDs, The Browns again for stopping Josh Allen in week 16, and finally Zach’s coveted Reddit thread for having an off year.

Predictions

New year, new me. Last year I finished guessing 53.6% correctly while ESPN projections went 61.9% in the regular season. Starting 2026 undefeated will be: Money Mayfield, Mr. Big Chests (this one will be exciting tonight with Price and the Seahawks DST against Rhamondre), Nasty Gworls (Taylor needs Monday night to hit the over to win this one), Dad of Two, Moore Brown Boutte (predicting lowest scoring matchup of the week here), Too Many Bengals (Jeff, please reconsider starting two Steelers players).

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