The Boys Fantasy Football 2025 Week 10 Recap

Fantasy Dumps

I don’t think I had any fun watching football this weekend. Maybe I stayed up a little too late on Saturday. Maybe the lack of sunlight is starting to kick in. Maybe I’m just in need of a break. Fantasy football was an absolute chore this week: trying to come up with trades that made sense, scouring the waiver wire, making picks on PrizePicks, setting multiple DFS lineups, setting rosters in my five leagues, cramming in podcast episodes, and making game predictions. As the games were going on, all I could see were the points piling up against me. Every Justin Jefferson target that sailed or Jets TD, every Breece Hall run and Dalton Schultz target; they just kind of bummed me out. I’ve thought about this before and I think one of the aspects of football I enjoy most is being able to predict certain outcomes better than random chance. Everyone loves that feeling of calling your shots: knowing who’s going up against a strong or weak secondary, how the return of an injured player is going to affect the rest of a roster. I just felt like I was plain wrong this weekend. I’m wrong all the time, but for some reason I had a strong emotional reaction to this weekend’s events. I’ve felt similar before, but the feeling also lingered much longer than usual. The good news is this is all just a game, and there’s always next week or next year. These lows elevate the joy of our inevitable fantasy successes. No matter how hard you try, there’s no crystal ball for the future so you’re always going to be wrong, but its likely you’ll still be right another day. After ten consecutive weeks spending up to ten hours per week on my fantasy football hobby, I think I’m just burnt out (not to mention the whole birth of my first child in late September thing*).

*PrizePicks and similar platforms are legal in GA even though prop betting is illegal. If you’re unfamiliar, they are basically contests where you pick two or more prop bets and need the parlay to hit to pay out. The payouts are sooo much worse than prop betting lines because you compete against other people’s prop bets so the platform can take a higher rake. Its absurd, but its the only legal way to prop bet in GA and I’ve got $150 in sign up bonuses to go through.

**Literally left to go change a diaper after typing this sentence

I wrote all the above on Monday. While its definitely true I am feeling a little better. Writing this week’s data nugget was pretty enjoyable.

Data Nugget

As promised, I went back from 2022 - 2024 to investigate the relationship between ESPN projections and player scores. I did not look at my personal pick rates this week so if anyone else wants to go back and check that be my guest.

This is also a fun adventure in data science. Our first plot looked a little funny; there was an abundance of points with apparent zero projected points, yet many actual points. That struck me as wrong, so maybe I processed the data wrong. Once I ruled that out, I thought my scraping might not have worked. I clicked back to one of these instances and Voilà! ESPN was literally listing their projections at zero. Not my fault. Look at your data kids. There’s no apparent rhyme or reason for these missing projections, they’re spread across weeks, years, players, and positions. Only 17 of the 252 matchups, so they were just excluded. Our first plot shows the correlation between ESPN projections and player scores.

Our relative correlation values match expectations: D/ST has the lowest meaning its the least predictable, followed by TEs, then WRs, then RBs, and finally QBs. RBs and QBs’ high correlation values may reflect their “high floor” outcomes, but is also intuitively correct as they each receive more than double digit opportunities. Variance in player score increases as opportunities per game decreases, leading to a greater departure on average from projections. Are the data any different if we just consider starters?

Correlation values are much lower in this case since no backups / injured players are considered that are projected to score zero or just a point or two. However, the overall trends hold, yet with RB being slightly more predictable than QB. Notice those points with zero projected and scored points? Yea thats all yall missing surprise inactives for the most part. Of these 23 instances, 11 of them were Jeremy. No one else had more than 3. Removing those values further decreased our R-squared values but not by much.

Our next question is what percentage of the time the ESPN projected winner is the actual winner? The answer is simple enough to calculate, but lets visualize it!

We’ve randomly assigned teams in a matchup as “team one” or “team two”, so value differences being positive or negative simply reflects which team is favored. When both projected differences and actual differences are negative, the projected and actual result match (quadrants 1 and 3, colored green), yet when they are different signs (quadrants 2 and 4 colored red), the projected winner was not the actual winner.

ESPN projections correctly predict the winner nearly 63% of the time (n = 234). When a team is projected to win by 10 or more points, that value rises to over 68% (n = 116), and when it hits 20 or more points its up to 76% (n = 42).

Next week, I’ll be looking at everyone’s start % (# of scored points / # of max points) and average score.

Transactions

Why do we still have this section?

We are getting incredibly cheap on waivers. IDC grabbed Musgrave for $4 while Mike spent $1 on Cade Otton. Dave was up at 5:48 am to grab the Cowboys defense taking on Geno Smith this week and also stashing the Falcons for a solid 13 minutes before deciding to switch them out with Demercado at 6:33am. I’d like to think Dave was between tasks and not starting at the waiver wire for 45 minutes. Be careful man, the burnout is real.

Matchups

Token Female (135.02) cheated against Team Waiver Wire (131.32). Its the only way I could lose to a women honestly. Jokes aside this matchup was split between two windows. Team Waiver Wire had most of their players in the early window while Token Female only had a trio of players open on Sunday, with two studs on Monday night. Team Waiver Wire’s start was less than hot. Quinshon Judkins (10.5) struggled against what should be the leagues worst defense on paper after the recent departure or Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardener because he plays for the Browns. Drake Maye (19.1) started slow against the Buccaneers, but once the pouring rain subsided he found the deep ball once more and salvaged his fantasy day. Jaylen Waddle (19.4) opened the first quarter with four catches for 84 yards and a TD, but the far ahead Dolphins seldom threw the ball after that (good call actually). JJ McCarthy (16.72) and Justin Jefferson (7.7) were a disappointment as the rookie couldn’t seem to dial in his passes to the superstar even when down multiple scores against the Ravens (4 catches on 12 targets). Token Female in the early window saw Breece Hall (19.5) held mostly in check until a 40+ yard receiving TD early in the 4th quarter accounting for over 57% of his fantasy points for the week. Dalton Schultz (18.3) saw a steady flow of targets from Davis Mills and caught what seemed like a garbage time TD in the 4th, yet was part of a 19 point 4th quarter comeback from the Texans over the Jaguars. The afternoon slate opened up with sustained dominance from JSN for Token Female, racking up over 18 fantasy points in the 4th quarter. JSN was checked for a concussion in the second quarter yet still returned to the game. By the time he returned, the Seahawks were already up 21-0 and cruised to victory. Sunday night made things slightly more interesting. Kimani Vidal (17.8) accumulated fantasy points late against the Steelers for Team Waiver Wire while Token Female’s Justin Herbert (14.7) only threw one passing TD. Heading into Monday night it was Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith for Token Female up against roughly 26 points. The very low scoring affair against the Packers gave Team Waiver Wire some hope, but it all evaporated with an absolute Moss TD catch from Devonta Smith in what would end up as the game winning TD early in the 4th quarter.

Mike’s team (127.52) snatched a W from I Digg Christians (123.98). Both teams had fairly even contributions across the squad with only a single 20+ performance in the matchup (Rome; 20.6). IDC’s Broncos stack of Nix (7.8) and Sutton (5.4) has been much more miss than hit lately. Nix’s lone TD pass went to Mike’s Troy Franklin (15) resulting in a massive point swing. Mike’s Ravens superstack was quite disappointing with just over 40 points combined from the three players. IDC also stacked the Saints’ offense which I would never recommend, yet this week Shough (18.98) did connect with Juwan Johnson (19.2) on a TD due to a blown assignment from Carolina. Heading into Monday night, Mike needed roughly 16 points from Josh Jacobs. As stated earlier, this was a very low scoring game with the first points arriving via FG in the mid 3rd quarter. Jacobs was acting as a bell cow but needed to score to get to 16 points as he was averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. After Smith’s TD, the Packers offense found their flow in response with an 11 play 75 yard TD drive ending with a Jacobs rushing TD that put Mike far enough ahead that Jacobs’ fumble on the next drive didn’t lose the game for Mike like it did for the Packers. Given the less than 4 point difference between these squads, several plays could have swung the matchup either way. My favorite play, however, was when the Jaguars were down 1 point after blowing a 19 point 4th quarter lead against the Texans. A few plays prior, poor clock management by Liam Coen left only 30 seconds on the game clock. Lawrence took a pair of sacks all but ending the game, yet on the final play he let the ball loose as he was going to the ground straight into the hands of 305 lb defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins who ran that ball into the endzone like he was headed to be first in line for the Wild Eagle at Dollywood (would recommend).

Team Tendonitis (194.88) laid down the hammer against Mrs. Goff (123.42). As Mrs Goff’s score is irrelevant, lets focus on Team Tendonitis’s super squad. This performance was even more impressive considering they started the day with Michael Pittman Jr scoring 3.9 and ended it with Jaylen Warren scraping together only 11.1. I can tell you this performance ranks 4th best since 2021. Davis Mills (28.68) opened things up mostly with the impressive aforementioned 4th quarter against the Jaguars including the game winning rushing TD. Emeka Egbuka (23.5) quickly re-established himself as a dominant player and looked fully healthy after his bye week. Caleb Williams (25.1) rushed for over 60 yards and like Mills ran in the game winning score. Jahmyr Gibbs (38.2) was unstoppable against the Commanders. Gibbs earned 172 scrimmage yards and scored all three of his TDs from 10 or more yards out. Davante Adams (19.7) is on a mind meld with Stafford and could have had an even bigger day, yet left the game due to an oblique injury in the second half. Trey McBride (27.7) benefitted both from being down big to the Seahawks and the QB controversy in Arizona as Brisset seems set to take the job for the rest of the year, though a pair of fumbles early in this game didn’t fully help his case. The Chargers DST (17) rounded out Cody Cat’s big day on Sunday night, man handling the Steelers offense with three turnovers and a safety. Had Team Tendonitis started Jerry Jeudy (19.8) instead of Pittman, it would have been the #1 game in this league since 2021 (not that there was a better game that year, thats just as far back as I looked. Current highest is.. you know what? I think I’ll save that for a data nugget).

Some Whiffs Here And There Club (130.94) put down Team Jeff (85.92). It was another struggle bus week for Team Jeff with Joe Flacco and Tee Higgins on bye. Justin Fields (7.96) passed for only 54 yards. I mentioned earlier that Fields’ lone TD pass accounted for over 57% of Breece Hall’s fantasy points. Well that single play was over 71% of the points for Fields which is wild for a QB. Bryce Young (2.56) similarly struggled against the Saints defense and passed for zero TDs, yet managed to throw an average fantasy day Tet McMillan’s way (11). SWHATC’s fantasy day started and ended with Jonathan freaking Taylor. It was the NFL’s first game in Berlin and Taylor was his usual unaufhaltsam self. Channeling his inner Jessie Owens (I’m sure no other sports writer has thought of that one), JT cruised to a season best 244 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Like I said earlier in these write ups, I didn’t want to go too deep into the historical context of JT’s season because I was pretty sure he would keep it up and boy has he. Insanely, this wasn’t the most rushing yards JT has ever had in a game (253 against the Jags in 2021), but its his third time cracking 150 this year and his 5th time (!!!!!) scoring three TDs. Jonathan Tayler literally has three TDs in half of his games this year. For all the credit we give Daniel Jones, his job sure seems easier with #28 next to him. This 49.6 fantasy point day set Zach up to cruise to a win especially since it ended up being ~58% of Jeff’s total.

$81k Team (131.52) breezed to a win against the bye-pocalypsed Too Many Bengals (91.24). Too Many Bengals went with thirteen personnel this week. The trio of Likely, Fannin, and Goedert barely cracked 100 combined yards on 10 catches with zero TDs. “Bill” Croskey Merritt has been impressive for fantasy football. Impressively terrible. Once thought of as the lead back for a high powered offense, Bill has failed to exceed 6 fantasy points in five consecutive weeks. The highlight of TMB’s week was a pair of big man fumble return TDs from DeMarcus Lawrence of the Seahawks (23). $81k Team had their own problems starting Thursday night. Coming off a fantasy-breaking performance the Sunday prior, Brock Bowers was the first, next, and last goal on the Broncos defense’s mind. Bowers finished with just a single catch for 31 yards and -4 rushing yards on a TE end around seen only from Pete Carrol and Arthur Smith. $81k Team suffered a pair of injuries as well. DJ Moore went full goose while Jaxon Dart’s playstyle finally caught up with the rookie via a concussion suffered in the third quarter that looks sure to knock him out of next week’s game. Fortunately for $81k Team, Dart went down swinging with a pair of rushing TDs and 26.28 fantasy points before his exit. Steve was carried to victory on the back of DeVon Achane (40.5) and the Dolphins’ rout of their division rival Bills. Buffalo and Josh Allen (20.32) appeared to start the comeback early in the 4th quarter with a score to Keon Coleman. The Dolphins offense was in run the ball mode, and the Bills defense knew it. However, they repeatedly took bad angles at the fastest RB in football and let him slip for a pair for 35+ yard rushing TDs. Given TMBs struggles, Achane actually just needed three rushing yards on the entire game to get Steve the win, but it was way more fun this way (for most of us at least).

Mr Big Chests (136.12) lifted himself to victory over Hamas Rockets (107.7). The Rockets did put up some great performances led by Matt Stafford (26.9) and his four passing TDs. Not only has Davante Adams opened up redzone passing TDs for Stafford, but the McVay offense is humming. Stafford appears to have minutes to stand in the pocket and find wide open receivers. If Stafford stays healthy I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the NFC Championship this year. Chris Olave (21.4) and Drake London (24.4) each had 104 yards and a TD with London adding one extra reception and two point conversion in the shootout against the Colts. Mr Big Chests answered with a 20+ point trio of their own in Ladd (20.7), Tez Johnson (20.2; what a start), and TreVeyon Henderson (28). 124 of Henderson’s 147 rushing yards came on two house calls in the second half in his second start in the absence of Rhamondre. Hamas Rockets were dragged down by their duds. Bijan (10.8) had a pair of redzone TDs snaked by Allgeier, and Garrett Wilson (0) promptly reinjured himself in return to action. TJ Hockenson (2.8) and AJ Brown (3.3) had terrible fantasy days, but I can’t say either were too surprising given their recent track records. MBC’s worst performing player was Gadsden (4.3) who finally broke his hot streak, yet it ended due to a bruised quad. MBC keeps in the fight moving up to 4-6 and sending the Rockets to “must win out” territory with 7 losses.

Projections

We both went 4-2 last week and stand at 35-25 (58%) and 39-21 (65%, on par with the 63% from this week’s data nugget) respectively. This week’s ESPN projected winners are: Team Waiver Wire, Mike, Team Tendonitis, TMB, $81k Team, and Token Female. I’m picking Taylor to upset Mike. I feel Mike’s team might be better but idk I’m just feeling it in this one.

Dad Joke of the Week

Alien life was recently discovered. They made contact with Earth to complain about us sending probes to Mars. I head NASA has decided to send a group of Astronauts out to greet the Aliens and say how sorry we are. Their calling the mission Apollo G.