Playoffs?!

It may be early to consider the fantasy playoffs as we are not yet halfway through the regular season. However, I think its fun to check in, and given my recent collection of our league’s historical data, we can put some numbers to it. I’ve seen some websites estimate playoff probability by simulating the rest of the season, weighting each team’s strength by their total points for. Though its not explicitly written anywhere, I imagine thats how ESPN arrives at their playoff probability table in the Standings page. So how important is a win this week for each of us? How would a win or loss affect our playoff probabilities? Naively, we can generate a table like Figure 1 below that simply lists the probability of getting to seven wins given a current amount of wins and losses. Seven wins doesn’t clinch a playoff spot, but no six win team has ever made playoffs. I also added the initials listing where we”re all at.

So how does this matrix compare to our league’s results? We can go back all the way to 2019 and see the experimental probability of making the playoffs given any combination of records. In Figure 2 below, I also list the number of instances of a given record below the probability.

We see that off the bat, winning week 1 has been a huge advantage, with nearly 2/3rds of 1-0 teams making playoffs and only 1/3rd of 0-1 teams making the dance. We’ve never had a 1-6 or worse team qualify, though one of the two 0-5 teams has snuck in. Our four 3-3 teams can shoot up to over a 60% experimental probability of making playoffs with a win this week, but with a loss go down all the way to 25%.

Transactions

No trades this week, frowny face. I’d sell Bucky or Hampton but ain’t no one buying my injured players.

Waivers were incredibly quiet this week. Surprisingly, the top add was the Vikings DST who are playing the Eagles this week for $6 to Mrs Goff. Taylor’s wedding ought to be getting close, no? Has he checked out at 1-5?

Matchups

Team Waiver Wire (131.14) pulled out the upset vs Mrs Goff (97.92). The list of players rostered yet not playing in this matchup included CeeDee, Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, CJ Stroud, and Omarion Hampton. For Mrs Goff, Kyren Williams (16.7) in a smash situation was mostly disappointing outside one drive where he pulled in an incredible “one butt cheek == two feet” catch on 4th down, rushing for his only TD the next play. Sam Darnold (20) looked incredible against the Jaguars thanks to JSN torching their secondary while Tre Tucker (12) pulled in all five of his targets for 70 yards. For Team Waiver Wire, the few drafted players they started this week performed well including a Tom Brady-esque first half from Drake Maye (27.24). Jaylen Waddle (15.82) looks to be a decent WR1 for the Dolphins after Tyreek’s injury with a second straight game with over 95 yards. While Maye was dealing, he was doing so on down field shots and not often to Mrs Goff’s Hunter Henry (5.7). Team Waiver Wire had a solid lead heading into Sunday Night Football, but the Goff ARSB stack is always dangerous. Fortunately for Team Waiver Wire, the pair (30.52 combined) did not find the endzone despite trailing the Chiefs for most of the game. Though it seems Team Waiver Wire dominated, this matchup came down to last Wednesday’s waivers. Mrs Goff took their shot at Hassan Haskins (3.3) in the Chargers backfield, leaving Kimani Vidal (22.8) available to Team Waiver Wire. Had Mrs Goff opted for Vidal, that could have been a ~38 point swing and led to a Mrs Goff victory. Sometimes you don’t have to choose the right guy, you just need your opponent to choose the wrong one.

LamaRB1 and the Funky Bunch (118.56) outlasted Team Jeff (112.66). Neither team had stellar totals but there were a few stellar players in this one. Mike’s Josh Jacobs (32) was unstoppable against the Bengals defense (if you can call it defense) averaging over 5 yards per carry and 10 yards per reception to couple with a pair of rushing TDs. Mike also benefitted from the resurgence of Brian Thomas Jr. (23), though he did have a few drops still, and the Broncos DST feasted on Team Jeff’s Justin “stares down my first read” Fields (4.9). Team Jeff did however get the first two career receiving TDs of Tetairoa McMillan’s (17.9) career and a solid day from fellow rookie Tyler Warren (18.3) who had 3 catches for 36 yards and a TD on the opening drive. Impressively, Team Jeff’s Joe Flacco fresh into his Bengals uniform managed 18.76 fantasy points against the Packers in Green Bay (thank you Ja’Marr Chase). Mike chased a good week from Mason Taylor (1.2) and had MHJ (5.2) leave the game early with a concussion. Heading into Monday night, Team Jeff needed just 11.5 points from Deebo Samuel, the WR7 entering the week. Samuel was dealing with a heel injury but was still part of the Commanders’ plans. Samuel had a handful of plays designed for him, but could do almost nothing with them all night, leaving LamaRB1 and the Funky Bunch with a comfortable week six victory.

Too Many Bengals (134.6) started to heat up against Team Tendonitis (116.66). Team Tendonitis fell in a deep hole Sunday with single digit performances from everyone except Trey McBride (21.2). Emeka Egbuka (4.4) left with a hamstring injury, Davante Adams (7.9) suffered from high wind speeds in Baltimore, and Michael Pittman Jr. (4) was mostly shutdown by rookie Will Johnson. At the same time, TMB started the week with a monster Goedert game (26) and racked up some near garbage time catches from Ja’Marr Chase (25.1), though those catches were still very impressive. On Sunday night, Team Tendonitis saw a resurgent Patrick Mahomes (31.48) returning to fantasy dominance. Unfortunately for Team Tendonitis, this included a pair of receiving TDs for TMB’s Hollywood Brown (20.5). At the same time, the Chiefs defense keyed in on slowing down Jahmyr Gibbs (7.5) and did so effectively. This kept Team Tendonitis at arms length on Monday night even with a decent Caleb Williams game (19.88) against a poor JCM (5.8) game. With the addition of Flacco, perhaps Ja’Marr and Chase Brown can start to heat up along with TMB.

Some Whiffs Here and There (135.66) survived against Hamas Rockets (133.44). SWHT left Hamas Rockets in the dust for most of the weekend. Jalen Hurts (21.62) finished with a decent fantasy line thanks to the Eagles running the tush push four plays in a row from the 3 yard line. Jonathan Taylor (23.7) continued his dominant season this week against the Cardinals while Cooper Kupp (12) caught his first TD in a Seahawks uniform. I’m a little surprised SWHT started Kenny G (9.6) in the flex given the return of Warren, but looking at his bench (Zach why are you still rostering James Conner?) it was the best decision besides Romeo Doubs (10.5). Baker Mayfield (19.64) continued his MVP campaign despite being down his top three pass catchers (Evans, Godwin, Egbuka) with an impressive win in Seattle. Hamas Rockets had a rocky ride with a relatively great game from AJ Brown (14), a disappointing week from David Montgomery (8.1), a WR1 game from Chris Olave (15.8), and a bad game from a banged up Garrett Wilson (4.3). Matt Stafford (9.34) struggled to throw in windy Baltimore, and the Lions DST (2) could not stop Mahomes on Sunday night. Heading into Monday night, it was Bijan and Drake London for Hamas Rockets against a 69.82 point deficit. The first half of the Bills Falcons game was nothing short of magic for Hamas Rockets. The Bills defense was swiss chess and Drake London and Bijan Robinson were the wind singing through their holes. Each scored a TD and accumulated over 100 scrimmage yards including an 81 yard rip from Bijan. With six second remaining in the first half, the Falcons had the ball at the 40 yard line. Thinking they were simply trying to rot a few seconds before attempting a field goal, the Bills opted for press coverage. London beat his man quickly who fell to the ground setting Drake off towards the endzone. Luckily for SWHT, London was so tired from torching the Bills secondary for 30 minutes that he was narrowly nudged out at the 1 yard line. Still, Hamas Rockets were only down ~12 points at the half! The third quarter was incredibly slow for the Falcons offense as was most of the fourth until their penultimate drive. The Rockets’ pair caught four passes and collected 50 yards. Unfortunately, the clock ran out on this Cinderella story and in the game leaving them 2 points short of the Monday night Miracle. Subtly shout out to Zach for swapping in the Rams DST (18) over the Bucs (10) at 10am on Sunday. Also with the cease fire, I wonder if Jeremy will opt for a name change.

Token Female (133.38) stomped $81k team (101.7). $81k team left their New York Giants stack on the bench on Thursday after a rough game against the Saints last week while Token Female kept the faith. Jaxson Dart (23.6; wow, thats really how his first name is spelled?) and Wan’Dale Robinson (20.4) were humming against a banged up Eagle secondary on Steve’s bench while Cam Skattebo (31) rammed his head against a wall for three TDs for Token Female. Steve’s weirdly anti correlated team of KW3 (4.7) / Charbonet (4.7) and Tua Tagovailoa (9.6) and De’Von Achane (31, two rushing TDs) did not score enough to hang with Token Female’s squad. JSN (30.2, WR2) was open early and often while Trevor Lawrence (19.22) had to throw to keep up. Puka Nacua (4.8) left early with an ankle injury and Breece Hall (5.9) suffered from Jets syndrome. $81k team’s DK Metcalf (19.5) is finally looking like a $100 million + WR and Josh Allen (17.4) collected a decent amount of points for a game in which his offense only scored 14 points. Starting their NYG duo may have won them this matchup, but to be fair, starting Wan’Dale in a high pressure matchup is a really difficult decision to make. Just ask Zach. Token Female now sits at 5-1 and leads the league in Points For. She’s averaging >143 points per week, a mark Steve and Zach haven’t yet hit. Through six week? Nothing lucky about it.

Mr. Big Chests (184.32) couldn’t even double up I Dig(g) Christian(s) (92.84). How embarrassing! Jokes aside, MBC’s team was on fire this week. Four of MBC’s players are benefiting from injuries further up the depth chart, but to their credit are dominating their opportunities. Starting at the top, Rico Dowdle (33.9) tore up his old team for 183 rushing yards in his second consecutive week matching or exceeding that line. Dowdle has been unstoppable in Chubba’s absence and is so far the waiver wire pickup of the year. George Pickens (31.8) looks how Stillers fans expected him to now that GP has a competent QB, and Ladd McConkey (23) positively regressed back to what should be his mean performance. Rachaad White (17.6) is riding the Baker MVP coaster and Danny Dimes (23.48) showed late game heroics against the Cardinals. Already dominating Max’s team, MBC decided to tack on a Daniels (22.64) to Ertz (16.3) TD on Monday night. I Dig(g) Christian(s) was down so bad, they did nothing about the surprise Dalton Kincaid inactive on Monday. Though to their credit, if I was going to score less than 100 points, I’d be glad it was in a week where I literally had no shot.

Predictions

Last week ESPN and I went 3-3 for 19-17 and 23-13 respectively. This week’s ESPN winners are: Team Waiver Wire, Too Many Bengals, Team Tendonitis, SWHT, I Dig(g) Christian(s), and MBC. Token Female over SWHT is the only one I’d call differently.

Dad joke of the week

Sleep. Get it? Its a joke because you get none. (at least half of you get it). On the bright side I can get first dibs on $0 waiver adds at 4am on Wednesdays.

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