The field is set

Congrats to our playoff teams on a well fought season and championship chance well earned. For everyone else, BOOOOOOO YOU STINK! (myself included). Taylor was the lone 4 win team sitting by himself at the bottom of the regular season rankings despite being 5th to last in points for.

Data nugget

This week I decided to look at everyone’s “luck rating”. In a given week, each team’s points scored is objectively somewhere from 1st to 12th, but whether they earn a win is up to the scheduling Gods. For the 2025 season, I calculated each team’s probability of earning at least any number of wins given their weekly scoring ranks. Your chance of winning your matchup in any given week is (# of teams scoring less than you) / 11. For example, if you were the highest scoring team, your win probability that week was 11/11. If you were the 5th highest scoring team, your win probability that week was 7/11. We get to total win probabilities by checking all possible outcomes against weekly scoring ranks*. Below are two graphs: a probability matrix to show the actual values, and a graph with a more intuitive visualization. Sorry not sorry about the dot placement, its late and ggplot is pissing me off. Dots correspond to the total wins, and the horizontal line is a 0.5 probability. The point along the x-axis when your curve passes the horizontal line is your expected wins.

We see Cody Cat got the most fucked by the schedule, earning 7 wins but having an expected value of just over 10 wins. He wasn’t the only one. Taylor had a decent amount of high finishes and was expected to have ~6 wins. Unsurprisingly, Emily had the highest expected win total at just over 11, having dominated most of the year. Also unsurprisingly, Mike had the greatest luck by far with an expected win count of just under six and only a 5% chance of getting to 8 wins. Jeff had the least expected wins with just under 5, but shout out to him for beating the odds and making it all the way to six wins.

*This method doesn’t account for the current limitations on scheduling. For example, we have to play round robin against division opponents, then play the other division, then finish back in our division. My method assumes any matchup is possible any given week. It occurred to me a more accurate estimate could be obtained by randomly sampling from the ~450 million possible schedule permutations and observing possible win counts, but I was already most of the way through my method. Maybe next year.

Transactions

Steve was the lone spender with $23 on Tony Pollard. Pollard faces KC in week 16 so I’m guessing its a potential week 17 play against the Saints if Cam Ward figures this whole QB thing out. Mike added Kenny Pickett with the news Geno Smith won’t play this week. Smart move to put him on the bench, it worked for the Eagles. Incase you were unaware, there’s a “budget info” tab to check on everyone’s remaining FAAB budget. Here are the budgets for the remaining teams:

Team FAAB
Steve $73
Emily $65
Cody C $100
Cody M $35
Max $11
Mike $0

Matchups

Too Many Bengals (132.5) snuck past Team End Codys Season (116.54). TMB started hot on Thursday night thanks in part to the Cowboys falling behind early against the Lions. Dak Prescott (20.44) ended up with 376 passing yards even with CeeDee Lamb’s early concussion exit and subsequent double coverage on George Pickens who ended with 37 receiving yards. Javonte Williams (14.7) rounded out the fantasy regular season with his 9th rushing TD to finish as RB7. Sunday morning saw TECS catch up in a hurry with Buck Irving (16.1) and Jaylen Waddle each scored a receiving TD in the first quarter. The hot start quickly cooled, however, starting with Quinshon Judkins being stopped two yards short of a 60 yard receiving TD of his own. Brenton Strange (5.7) and Justin Jefferson (3.1) also decided not to contribute. Meanwhile, TMB saw Chase Brown (18.5) and Travis Etienne Jr. (21.2) each score a pair of TDs overcoming a combined <100 rushing yards. The Seattle DST once again brought TECS close to a victory with a 21 point day against Atlanta. Despite Rashee Rice’s best efforts dropping multiple 4th down passes on Sunday night, TMB was ahead by 0.16 points with Goedert still to play on Monday night. Though it ended in a 16 point victory, TECS could have pulled out the upset if they didn’t swap in Devaughn Vele (7.0) over Christian Watson (24.9) 10 minutes before kickoff on Sunday. The cold weather in Green Bay along with the return of Jayden Reed scared me and being eliminated from the playoffs gave me the balls to start someone off the waiver wire. That could have pushed TMB to the 6th seed to play Max instead of Cody Cat in round 1; a tough draw either way but something to keep an eye on this week.

Mike’s team (105.28) backed himself into the playoffs over Hamas Rockets (98.04). This matchup was a dud fest. For Mike, Jayden Daniels (3.72) was getting rocked by the Vikings and was knocked out of the game after getting knocked on his injured elbow during a pick-six. Zach Ertz (2.1) collected 11 of the team’s 108 receiving yards before tearing his ACL and potentially ending the 25 year old’s career. DJ Moore (0.6) finished with a single catch on three targets and now has less than 20 receiving yards in four of his last five games. The Rockets followed the dud fest led by Bijan Robinson (9.4) failing to score a TD against the Seahawks. Chris Olave (6) found tough footing in a very raining game in Tampa Bay, and Terry McLaurin (7.1) suffered the same aforementioned Commanders woes. Heading into Sunday night, Mike had the Texans DST and about a 10 point lead against AJ Brown. The Texans defense took care of business against Mahomes and the Chiefs with a trio of interceptions, but still left AJ Brown within striking distance. With few points for on the season, Mike needed the win to make playoffs. AJ Brown had trickled in enough points to leave him one three yard receiving TD away from a Hamas Rockets win with two minutes left as the Eagles kicked the ball away up three. Justin Herbert tied the game in regulation, extending the game to OT and giving the Rockets another shot. On the Eagles’ overtime drive, Hurts just missed Brown on a pair of deep shots but was able to move the ball into the red zone. A TD to win the game. A TD to Brown to end Mike’s season. On 1st and 10, Hurts rolled right and tried to fit the ball in too tight a window. The ball was tipped and picked ending the game but not the year for Mike’s team.

Token Female (135.32) finished ahead of Team Tendonitis (121.54) in her pre-playoff scrimmage. Team Tendonitis came out swinging Thursday night with another tri-TD game from Jahmyr Gibbs (37) against the Cowboys. Things slowed way down for TT on Sunday with Egbuka (3.5) dropping a wide open TD and only pulling in 2 of his 9 targets. Egbuka has been ice cold relative to the first five weeks of the season, only cracking double digits once since week 5. I’m playing against him in two playoff matchups next week so I can’t wait for a 2 TD night Thursday. Jaylen Warren (15.2) ended with a solid score thanks to a 38 yard receiving TD and Pittman (16.9) collected 9 catches in garbage time after Daniel Jones’s exit. Token Female had four of their nine starters play Sunday and Monday night, but their Sunday players showed up. JSN (28.1) torched yet another secondary and Puka Nacua (35.7) was Mossing defenders even when the Rams were up three scores. Team Tendonitis has a mediocre afternoon at best with Trey McBride (10.8) catching a season-low 5 passes and Davante Adams (6.9) rarely not catching a red zone TD. After a poor night from Mahomes (9.3), Token Female needed just over 25 points on Monday night from Saquon, Herbert, and DeVonta Smith. Though not a high scoring game, a solid 122 yard rushing day from Barkley (18.2) allowed Smith (7.7) and Herbert (13.16) room to dud and still leave Token Female with an eleventh win.

I Digg Christians (135.24) enjoyed an early bye week against Some Whiffs Here And There Club (66.48) who took the week off. Shout out to IDC’s Shedeur Sanders on a 34.46 point fantasy day. Thanks for this performance should go to both defenses who were blowing coverages and tackles all afternoon. Sanders passed for 364 yards and ran for another 29 thanks to consistently trailing the Titans. Neither he nor Ward looked great while racking up about 30 points each, but fantasy football doesn’t care. I’m going to call my shot on this being Sanders’ most fantasy points of his career. IDC could have overcome SWHATC with just Sanders, the Dolphins DST (18) and Bo Nix (15.98). Zach’s season ended with Daniel Jones (1.8) who tore his achilles on Sunday. Reports surfaced recently that Jones was playing with a fractured fibula. This is a reminder that compensating for injuries often leads to more injuries. Jonathan Taylor (11.4) and the Colts couldn’t move the ball without Jones. The Steelers made the Ravens DST (0) look like they did to start the year while Romeo Doubs full goosed. Across all Zach’s 8 players not including their defense, he had 484 total yards compared to 529 from just Nix and Sanders. Like me, Zach will be trying again next year.

$81k team (156.98) launched himself into a bye week against Mrs Goff (116.88). Mrs Goff appeared to not have set their lineup this week, leaving Hunter Henry in at TE who was on bye. That tells me they were lucky that ARSB (15.2) was a surprise active on Thursday night and didn’t seem to be limited. Jared Goff (16.16) played a great game with 309 passing yards but only one passing TD when the Lions finished with five. None of Mrs Goff’s players scored in the single digits (aside from Henry), but no one broke 20 points either. CeeDee (18.1) was well on his way past the 20 point mark before leaving with a concussion in the third quarter. $81k team was a little more top heavy. Josh Allen (37.82) played hero ball against the Bengals in the snow with 78 rushing yards and 4 total TDs while Michael Wilson (37.2) is playing like a top 5 NFL draft pick with Jacoby Brissett. KW3 (3.8) didn’t have any explosive plays against the Falcons and Tyrod Taylor (-0.76) left the game injured after throwing an interception. Those dud games didn’t matter thanks to the studs.

Mr Big Chests (74.86) fell apart against Team Jeff (111.2). To review, Dave was win and in. With a loss, he could still make the playoffs effectively with a loss from Max OR Mike. On Thursday, George Pickens (8.7) seemed to have a great opportunity with Lamb’s exit, but the fantasy WR3 through 14 weeks understandably drew frequent double coverage. With a trio of bye weeks (Henderson, Kittle, Dowdle) and Mariota moving to the bench, Dave had to make some tough start decisions. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (5.2) had been leading the Commanders backfield, but the Commanders got shut out against the Vikings. Adonai Mitchell (3.4) was coming off a 10+ target game, but only caught a single pass on Sunday thanks in part to Tyrod’s early exit. MBC did have some great games from RJ Harvey (22) and Tyler Shough (22.26) who had a pair of rushing TDs in their upset victory against the Bucs. Unfortunately for MBC, when I said “some” great games, I meant literally “a pair” of good games. No other player hit double digits. Even the Titans DST who got to play the Browns, had a pair of turnovers and a blocked kick only got to 5 points. Team Jeff wasn’t a world beater, but climbed past 110 points thanks to a pair of Burrow (25.36) to Higgins (27.2) TDs and a solid game from Devin Neal (15.4). Heading into Monday night, Dave needed about 40 combined from Orlando Gadsden and Ladd McConkey. Its not an impossible makr to hit, but it would probably require a pair of TDs. Instead of a pair of TDs, it was a pair of catches for Gadsden and McConkey.. for the entire game. With Herbert nursing a broken left hand, there wasn’t much passing volume for LA. If every single Herbert completion went to McConkey or Gadsden for the entire game, an overtime affair, they would have scored only 31.9 points. Better luck next year.

Predictions

To end the fantasy regular season, I went 2-4 for 45-39 (53.6%) with ESPN going 3-3 for 52-32 (61.9%) total. Rough year for me. I’ll post a full playoff primer for the quarter final matchups on Sunday morning, but I’ll cover the Thursday players here. Mike is going with Kirk Cousins it seems on Thursday night who hasn’t scored more than 16 points all year and has average just under 9 points the last four weeks. I beg you to reconsider, but what do I know? I’m eliminated. Cody Cat appears to be staying with Emeka Egbuka despite their rough form as of late and I don’t blame him. I’d be too scared to go away from the rookie, the Falcons have a bottom half pass defense, Mike Evans’ return could draw away coverage, and the alternatives are either Khalil Shakir or Jerry Jeudy. You know what? Those aren’t terrible options this week I think, but yea no way I’d have the balls to make that move.

Dad Joke of the Week

I live in a pretty safe neighborhood, so when I’m doing yard work I leave my garage door open. I forgot to close it the other day and didn’t realize until this morning. Checking the garage I found the only thing missing was my limbo pole which really sucks. I can’t believe someone would go so low.

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