Data nugget

This week we take a look at the results from 2022 through 2024 if this were a best ball league. I wanted to simulate the playoffs as well, but I didn’t pull any data from teams with bye weeks, so that would be way more trouble than its worth to go back. Below are the final standing from 2022 - 2024 with best ball wins in black and actual wins in grey. I’ve added a horizontal line around the magic “seven win” line.

Mostly everyone differs by about 1 win or loss so it wouldn’t have drastically altered. In fact, no team differed by more than a 2 win/loss swing across the last three years because of their start / sit decisions.

Next week, lets consider adding a league-median win/loss and check everyone’s “luck” rating.

Transactions

Jeff paid up to replace Kamara with $29 on Devin Neal, beating out the next highest bid by.. $29. Dave made his usual 5:30am transactions

Matchups

Mrs Goff (136.02) dragged Team Waiver Wire (102.14) into the Loser’s Bracket with them. Not like it took much effort. The second lowest scoring team on the week followed a familiar pattern. Nico Collins (8.5) and Justin Jefferson (8.8) were each little more than flex plays. A heavy investment in a “can’t miss” defense (Seahawks - 2nd highest scoring DST on the year) resulted in the most points the Titans have scored all season and just 6 points. Well that’s enough bitching. Kudos to a solid week from Mrs Goff’s squad. James Cook (21.9) opened the ledger on Thursday night with a 45 yard rushing TD early in the game. On Sunday, Hunter Henry (24.5) dominated his way to a TE1 finish on the week including two receptions where he was brought down less than 5 yards from scoring and one TD called back by penalty. The Goff ARSB-combo (48.06 combined) feasted in a shootout against Jameis and the Giants. Sam Darnold (17.66) rebounded from his 4 interception night on the back of JSN, and CeeDee (11.5) had a modest afternoon during the Cowboy’s 21 point comeback against the Eagles. With Bucky Irving being ruled out late in the week, Team Waiver Wire slotted in Bayshul Tuten to the tune of 17 total yards, no catches, and no touchdowns. Christian Watson (9.9) approached a flex-worthy play and Quinshon Judkins (16.7) failed to crack 20 fantasy points in a game in which he scored twice in the first half. Jacoby Brissett (18.68) threw for another 300+ yards, but like Team Waiver Wire, extended his losing streak. Watch out Jeff and Cody, its time to play spoiler.

Team Tendonitis (177.14) out Cody’d Too Many Bengals (151.28). TMB put up a respectable week with Ja’Marr Chase serving his spitspension. Travis Etienne Jr. (20.6) filled the flex spot and was the hot hand in Jacksonville against the Cardinals with 116 combined yards and a score. Also scoring for TMB from the Jaguars was Parker Washington (18.1) on a go-ahead TD with under 4 minutes in the game. Chase Brown (15) had his first 75+ rushing yard game against a team other than the Steelers with 107 on 19 carries. Both DSTs feasted in this matchup. TMB’s Browns sacked Geno 10 times (The line was 6.5 and I thought that was insane). Myles Garrett (3 sacks on Sunday) is on record alert with games against the Titans and Steelers coming up. Team Tendonitis had the Rams DST (20) that completely embarrassed the Buccaneers on Sunday night. I didn’t watch that game but I did see Cobie Durant rip the ball out of Cade Otton’s hands and return it for a 50 yard score. Baker left with a shoulder injury, but really wasn’t doing much before then. The story of this matchup for Team Tendonitis was Jahmyr Gibbs (drafted right after I took Justin Jefferson :sob:). Gibbs ripped through the Giants defense like a hot knife through butter. Gibbs caught 11 total passes and carried the ball 15 times. With 11 minutes to go in the 4th, he exploded for a 49 yard rushing TD to help the Lions comeback from a two score hole and eventually force overtime. On the first play in overtime, Jahmyr made defenders look silly, cutting straight through the line, then outrunning the safety who had an almost 10 yard head start to the endzone for the game winner. All said and done he finished with 55.4 fantasy points; enough to win me all my DFS contests. TMB tried to catchup on the back of Dak’s (28.06) huge comeback against Philly and put himself in a spot of needing 36 points from Brock Purdy on Monday night. Instead of three dozen points, Purdy delivered three interceptions to the Panthers in the first half, but unlike TMB, Purdy still escaped with a win.

Hamas Rockets (106.82) slunk past Some Whiffs Here And There Club (81.68). SWHATC had a regrettable week. Only three players cracked double digits. Daniel Jones (16.84) had a pair of TDs in a losing effort against the Chiefs who were also able to slow down Jonathan Taylor (8.6). Bam Knight (13.2) only had 12 rushing yards on 10 carries but still had a decent day thanks to a TD and four receptions. Hamas Rockets didn’t have the best start to the week with the Lions defense (-2) getting bullied by the Giants offensive line, Tyjae Spears (6.5) rushing for only 4 yards, and TJ Hockenson (5.9) putting up the usual stat line. Bijan Robinson (14.7) salvaged being the literal only offensive weapon on the Falcons with over 100 combined scrimmage yards and AJ Brown (25) returned to big boy football against the Cowboys. Heading into Sunday night football it was Matt Stafford and a 13 point lead for Hamas Rockets against Baker and Rachaad White for SWHATC. Baker (5.54) absolutely imploded against the Rams on Sunday, passing for only 41 yards and a pair of picks. Luckily for SWHATC, Baker suffered a shoulder injury at halftime putting him out of his misery and letting Zach move on to next week early. Matt Stafford continued what could be an MVP campaign with nearly 300 passing yards and a trio of TDs. Davante Adams has been one of the best free agent signings this offseason and has completely reignited Stafford’s fantasy value (13.4 PPG last year, 20.4 PPG this year) with 10 redzone TDs so far this year.

Mr Big Chests (154.2) flexed against I Digg Christians (114.78). IDC’s free agent pickup of Emanuel Wilson (26.5) paid off with a pair of rushing TDs in the Packers’ rout of the Vikings while the Packers DST racked up 18 points. CMC (27.2) dominated against his former team despite Brock Purdy’s best efforts, and thats where the good times ceased for IDC. With Bo Nix on bye he rolled with the rookie duo of Shedeur Sanders (11.26) and Tyler Shough (8.92) with little success while Jameson Williams went full goose. Meanwhile, MBC got halfway to a victory just from their QBs. Jalen Hurts (30.86) predictably dominated against the Cowboys defense, but only in the first half. Unlike for the Eagles, the first half points were enough for MBC to win. With a deficit, the Cowboys were chucking the ball to George Pickens (29.6) who has been everything he could have been with the Steelers if we just didn’t draft a QB in 2022. Jameis friggin Winston (33.24) was on fire against the Lions finding Wan’Dale Robinson often even if half of them were hospital balls. Early in the 4th quarter, Winston caught a pass down the sideline on a trick play with one man to beat. Winston buried the man, throwing him to the ground, scoring from 33 yards out, and putting the Giants up 10 points with 12 minutes to go. In what felt like typical Winston fashion he threw an ugly interception on the next drive that felt like he was giving the game away, but his defense forced a three and out so we can’t pinpoint the loss on Jameis. Much like Cody this week (and Steve in our dynasty league), the Giants just got Gibbs’d. Aside from Sean Tucker (5.6), all other skill players scored within 10-15 points. It wasn’t much but it was honest work to boost the trio of 29+ pointers to an easy victory.

$81k Team (147.3) escaped with a win against Token Female (145.64). This was a back and forth matchup all week. On Sunday, Josh Allen (10.12) looked mortal against the Texans defense setting up for a slow start for $81k Team. The Allen dud was quickly erased with a massive game from Wan’Dale Robinson (30.6) with 9 catches on 14 targets for 156 yards and a TD. Anyone have Wan’Dale WR1 (WR11 overall) through 11 weeks on their bingo cards? Steve also got a second consecutive great game from Marvin Harri.. I mean Michael Wilson (21.8) on the back of 33 targets the last two weeks combined. Token Female kept up the score fest with another monster game from JSN (37.1) who was uncoverable in Tennessee. No one else on the squad cracked 17 points, but everyone except Kelce (8.4) and the Jags DST (7) were in the double digits. Thanks to a 30 carry and 3 reception game from Kareem Hunt (20), $81k Team headed into Monday night with a 5 point lead and the 49ers DST against Jauan Jennings (wait, I think I’ve definitely spelled his name “Jawuan” or something like that before. Oops). Unfortunately for $81k Team, Jennings scored the first TD of the game. It seemed like Steve was going to need a defensive TD to pull out a win at that point. However, all he needed was for Brock Purdy to complete more passes to Jaycee Horn (2) than he had TD passes. Jennings did nab a pair of catches on the 49ers first drive of the 4th quarter that put Token Female in the lead. On the very next drive, Bryce Young threw an essentially game sealing interception for the Panthers that put $81k Team ahead of Token Female without the need for the 49ers to pass the ball anymore up 11 points.

Mike’s Team (107.28) won the battle of the brothers against Team Jeff (104.28). There were only two 20+ point games in this matchup; one by each team. Mike had Derrick Henry (22.8) predictably score twice against a poor Jets Defense. At the same time, that Jets defense was harassing Lamar Jackson (7.22) who finished with just 153 passing yards and 11 yards on 7 carries. Team Jeff’s Ashton Jeanty (24.8) continued to be a dump off king with 8 catches and 100 total scrimmage yards against the Browns. Jeff’s Flacco (10.62) Higgins (8.1) stack were held in check by Christian Gonzalez, but Tyrone Tracy Jr. (16) had no issues moving the ball against Detroit. Mike has been getting consistent production from the Texans DST (15) who have effectively won him 2 of his last 3 matchups. With decent games from Jakobi (15) and Kirk Cousins (15.46; more than his last three starts combined), Mike was up about 26 points against the Young-McMillan stack on Monday night. The duo couldn’t get much going in the first half, hardly connecting at all until a TD near the end of the third quarter. Down only three points late in the fourth, Jeff just needed one 20 yard pass for the win. Young did target TMac on their penultimate drive, but the pass was promptly intercepted. The Panthers got one final drive in the game with about five minutes remaining but limped into long FG range, missing a 57 yarder, not targetting TMac, and ending the nights of both the Carolina offense and Team Jeff.

Predictions

Last week I went 2-4 while ESPN projections went 4-2 (mayyyybe I should stop picking myself.. Naw). Records are at 40-32 and 46-26 (honestly I’m shocked I’m within striking distance of these). ESPN projected winners this week are Team Tendonitis, Token Female, $81k Team, Mrs Goff, Team End Jeff’s Season, and Too Many Bengals. Gimme IDC over Steve and you know what? I’ll take Jeff over myself. I can’t make the playoffs I might as well try and catch up to the ESPN projections.

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