Aaaand We’re Back

Happy over-reaction Week! AJ Brown won’t clear 100 yards combined on the season, Aaron Rodgers will break the single-season passing TD record, Daniel Jones » Jayden Daniels, and Javonte Williams is a top 5 back. Its good to finally have all the answers. With 12 of 16 games hitting the under (nice call Steve; though statistically speaking not terribly unlikely), many NFL offenses and our fantasy teams of our fantasy teams are off to a slow start.

Last year, we averaged 117 points in week 1. This year we are just over 113. While winning week one feels great, in this league, it offers only a slight edge at qualifying for playoffs (61% over the last 9 years). 0-2, however shifts those odds. There’s only one 0-1 matchup next week: Mrs Goff vs. Agent Zero. Good luck, have fun. As I looked back at previous years, I’ve noticed this is the third year in a row we have the same opening day schedule. Someone schedule a reminder to switch that up next year. That being said, no one has won on opening day three years straight, and those with 2 wins in the last three years at Jeff, Max, Emily, Alan, and Dave.

Here’s a little game I like to call “shoulda drafted”. Five matchups this week were decided by <17 points. With how many dud games we had from top draft picks, here’s a short list of who this week’s losers could have taken instead to start 1-0 rather than 0-1:

Justin the Nico Time: Instead of Nico Collins (5.5), Puka Nacua (23.1) Mrs Goff: Instead of ARSB (8.5), Garrett Wilson (22.5) Agent Zero: Instead of Ja’Marr Chase (4.6), next drafted was CeeDee, but a short list of receivers that also would have won your week include Kayshon Boutte, Keenan Allen, Calvin Austin III (on your bench), and Tre Tucker. Mr. Big Chests: Instad of Bryce Young (10.16), Daniel Jones (29.48, on your bench) Zero Whiffs Club: Instead of Tyreek Hill (8), Zay Flowers (28.1, the WR1 on the week)

Start of the week

If warranted, I plan to call out a brave start/sit decision from the last week that may or may not have payed off. Week 1 is a little tough since players were mostly started by draft order, and there aren’t many injuries or bye weeks backing people into unsavory options. Wait, speaking of injuries forcing people into these decisions, how about Cody M starting Marvin Mims Jr. at WR over the only other rostered WR that was playing Calvin Austin III. Not to call out what I think was a bad decision, but one that was funny to have to have been made in week 1.

Waiver wire

Waivers were active this week. The top bid getter was the recently signed Quinshon Judkins to Justin the Nico Time for $34, edging out Call of Kyler: Murray Warfare 2 ($30). CKMW2 was ready to cut bait with the latter half of their draft class as well, placing $103 in total bids across 8 players and acquiring just 3 players for a total of $21. CKMW2 was also outbid by $1 on Kayshon Bouttee and by $10 on Harold Fannin Jr. Meanwhile, Jeff outbid Mike on Quentin Johnston ($26 - $19).

Matchups

Call of Kyler: Murray Warfare 2 (118.28) sailed to victory against Justin the Nico Time (105.4). JNT had a rough start Friday night with the Chargers offense funneling through their WRs rather than 4th round pick Omarion Hampton (8.1). The early window Sunday was uneventful for this matchup as CKMW2 had Brian Thomas Jr. (9) sat through a weather delay and Kyler Murray (18.32) walked in a victory against the Saints. The late window started with fireworks for JNT as Tucker Kraft hauled in an early TD, but saw little action after (9.9). Meanwhile, CKMW2’s squad of Josh Jacobs (14), Evan Engram (5.1 - calf injury), and Tony Pollard (7.9) failed to impress. Sunday night’s bonanza in Buffalo, however, gave Lamar and Zay Flowers a combined 57.46 points as the duo connected on 7 of 9 targets for 143 yards and a TD. Heading into Monday night, it was JJ McCarthy, Justin Jefferson, and DJ Moore against D’Andre Swift and a solid ~50 point lead for CKMW2. A slow first half, however, didn’t offer much of a spark for JNT nor the Minnesota Vikings. This one got a little spicy at the end when the Bears were driving and JNT was down 12 points. DJ Moore flashed open down the sideline, but he was sorely overthrown by Caleb Williams, encapsulating the phrase, “we were close, but not really” that may be the Bears’ mantra for the Caleb Williams era. To be honest, I’m just glad to have broken 100 points.

Team Jeff (107.54) snuck out a win against Mrs Goff (94.02). There are going to be a lot of duds this week so be ready for it. We start with the Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins stack combining for 15.12 points for Team Jeff. Without injury, I’ll be surprised if that isn’t their lowest combined total all year. Mrs Goff started fairly strong in the season opener with CeeDee (18), though you certainly felt like CeeDee left a few catches on the field. Their high powered stack of Jared Goff and ARSB did outperform Burrow and Higgins, but only by ~5 points. Team Jeff answered with a TE1 performance from Tyler Warren, though it only netted him 14.9 points. Thanks to a great fantasy performance from Justin Fields (29.52) for Team Jeff, going into Sunday night, Mrs Goff was down ~28 points with James Cook yet to play. Fortunately, there were a whopping 81 points scored in Sunday Night’s thriller (that I didn’t stay up to watch because I’m old). Unfortunately for Mrs Goff, not only did James Cook only reach 21.2 points, but they also started the Ravens DST which scored -6.

Bear-Force 2: Nabers in Paris (98.52) flushed Agent Zero (90.3) in this week’s toilet bowl. Agent Zero looked as if they were off to a hot start in the season opener as the Dallas offense was humming, and Dallas Goedert was a consistent target in the middle of the field for Hurts. Touchdowns coming from the ground, and a lack of after the catch ability from Goedert however left Agent Zero with just 19.24 combined points after Thursday. Furthermore a near even split in the KC backfield sat Agent Zero with 4.8 points from Pacheco on Friday. It was still hope season in the early window on Sunday. TreVeyon Henderson for Bear-Force was seldom used though still managed 11.1 points, while Russ Wilson was cooking road kill against the Commanders leaving Nabers at just 12.1 points. Agent Zero had their own struggles as Ja’Marr Chase (4.6) and Chase Brown (13.1) couldn’t find consistent footing against the Browns’ defense. Bear-Force was brave to start Cam Ward and the rookie’s perhaps third projected target in Chig Okonkwo against the Broncos. I say that not only since they’re a tough defense, but also because it was Ward’s debut, and it showed. The pair failed to surpass 7.5 combined points, but Tennessee made the game interesting. Luckily for Bear-Force, poor clock management by the Titans and a good punt return from Marvin Mims allowed a Bo Nix (8.84) to Sutton (18.1) TD late in the first half, lifting Bear-Force to victory. A sub headline in this matchup was the amount of good games from both teams’ benches. If this were best ball, the final score would have been Agent Zero 136.8 to Bear-Force 129.34.

Token Female (151.94) wiped the floor with Hamas Rockets (102.3). Token Female started the season strong Thursday and Friday with four players in the opening games combining for 63.62 points. Meanwhile, Hamas Rockets saw his season’s point trickle in with a single catch from AJ Brown (1.8). Early Sunday, things were looking up for Hamas Rockets with Bijan housing a checkdown for a 50 yard TD and Garrett Wilson dominating the Steelers’ AARP-gold status secondary. Unfortunately, that was the highlight of the Rockets’ week (also god damn its sad this team name is still relevant). Token Female, however, did not slow down from their fast start. Breece Hall (16.5) returned to 2023 form and Puka (23.1) dominated even after having his eye brow cut by an opponent’s helmet. Devonta Smith (4.6) was the only disappointment and was well compensated for by a Broncos DST (18) that feasted on Cam Ward’s debut, sacking the rookie 6 times.

Team Tendonitis (146.52) had the power-up of facing Mr. Big Chests (130.38) this week. MBC had George Pickens (6) on opening night who had more PI yards (34) than receiving yards (30). Bryce Young (10.16) also regressed to early 2024 form against what was supposed to be a weak Jaguars defense, and RJ Harvey (7.9) was truly the 1B to JK Dobbins to start the year. That, however is where MBC’s woes ended. George Kittle may have torn his hamstring, but he scored 12.5 points before exiting, good for an advantage over TT’s Trey McBride (12.1). Marvin Harrison Jr. (18.1) was featured against the Saints and Jayden Daniels (20.12) carried the rock 11 times in what should be a floor game for the stellar sophomore. Team Tendonitis had their own beefy performances with the Chiefs not trusting their run game and Mahomes (26.02) scrambling for 57 yards and a TD. The Lions and Jahmyr Gibbs (15) had a horrible offensive performance yet Gibbs still received 10 checkdowns. Rookie Emeka Egbuka (23.6) exploded on the scene with 2 TDs Sunday including the game winner with 59 seconds remaining. Heading into Sunday night, things were looking dim for MBC, but King Henry resurrected hope in the first half with >130 yards and a TD. While Henry was eventually reigned in, he managed 29.2 points as the highest scoring running back on the week and left MBC down only 4 points yet having the Bears DST against Caleb Williams. A Caleb Williams rushing TD in the first quarter pretty much sealed the deal in this one. Next week its Steve’s turn to win a shootout vs. Dave.

$81k Team (113.42) bought a victory against Zero Whiffs Club (101.46). Despite their name, ZWC whiffed hard on Xavier Worthy (0, shoulder injury early) and Tyreek Hill (8, domestic battery and terrible offensive line). At the same time, $81k Team had a trio of duds in KW3 (5.4), Matthew Golden (3.6), and Tua “Turnover” Tagovailoa (7.26). ZWC’s solid QB duo of Baker (22.58) and Jalen Hurts (24.28) were enough to get his team over the 100 point mark. That left him with a 26.8 point lead heading into Sunday Night against only Josh Allen who had hit that mark 5 times last year during his MVP campaign. As long as BAL-BUF hit the under, and Josh Allen didn’t have insane rushing numbers he was set. Unfortunately for ZWC, Josh “The Stallion” Allen (38.76) picked up right where his MVP season left off. It seemed like the Ravens were taking care of business, and Josh Allen’s fantasy stats were held in check. That is until the fourth quarter where JA racked up two rushing TDs, a passing TD, got to nearly 400 passing yards, and stole a win from under Baltimore’s and ZWC’s noses. Here’s a quick reminder that Jayden Daniels and Lamar were drafted ahead of Josh. Wow guys way to pass on the white guy.

Predictions

Last week I went undefeated! (you have no proof otherwise). To be fair, lets just start me off matching ESPN projections and the ole 3-3. This week’s winners will be: Justin the Nico Time, Mrs Goff, Team Jeff, Token Female (JSN against a LB sign me up), CKMW2, and MBCs.

Its good to be back yall.

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