Merry Christmas Eve!

Hello boys and girl (does Parker count as the second Token Female yet?). I’m rife with anticipation for the start of the NFL season. There’s nothing quite like a prime time game where we average 50 seconds of commercials for every 60 seconds of game clock. The excitement continues into a special Friday game this year as well. Unfortunately (.. not really), I’ll be out of the country for the first two Sundays of the regular season so I can look past the multibillion dollar advertisement machine more easily.

I’m sure you’re all prepped for our eight team league this year and recognize in smaller leagues everyones teams will be great. I predict that results in more trades and lateral movement of star players. The addition of an additional flex position I think was an excellent idea to keep players outside the top 30 at their position relevant, but not for my team because I won’t have any.

How’s about a quick recap of last year’s draft? If you aren’t in the other league, don’t worry too much about the plot below. I simply asked the question: did the players a team drafted finish above or below where they were expected to finish? (caveats here). The more players you have above the black line, the better!

Unexpectedly, I did not draft well last year with 3 players drafted at or exceeding expectations (Antonio Gibson 41-38; Tua 9-8; Tyreek 2-2). Even then the highest jump was Antonio Gibson going from RB41 to RB38. My biggest whiffs were Justin Fields (at least I’m not alone there), Dameon Pierce (15-55), and Chris Olave (12-20). Token Female was next worst with 4 players meeting or exceeding expectations: Evan Engram (6-4), Pacheco (28-13), Michael Pittman Jr. (35-13), and Travis Etienne (10-3). Their biggest whiffs were Davante Adams (3-11) and Justin Herbert (6-16)

Completely expected, however, was the dominant draft from eventual champion Jeff with 11 of their 16 draft picks exceeding draft value. The only ones not to hit were Calvin Ridley (15-26), Kenny Pickett (15-31), Pat Freiermuth (7-31), and Samaje Perine (36-39). The highlight of the draft had to have been Raheem Mostert (RB2 with 21 TDs) in the 13th round but we all recall how dominant Jeff’s team was. Please don’t do that again tonight.

I mentioned in the other league’s article the importance I place in hitting your top draft picks. In this league, it seemed to matter a little less, however, as playoff teams averaged a lower average fantasy finish at their position (18.46) than non-playoff teams (15.06). Possibly driving that value however could have been Team Tallman Urgent Care drafting the RB1 (CMC) and TE1 (Kelce) then effectively trading away Kelce for Ekeler. Way to go Steve, you drove him back into the retirement home with that one.

Its <1 hour to draft time so I’m too lazy to include the full tables. GLHF this year everyone.

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