#Not finished writing until August 6th where the number of COVID list occupants and opt outs has changed, but we are sticking with analysis of numbers as of July 30th
What will the upcoming 2020 NFL season look like?
I will present current Covid-19 data from the NFL and work out what I think this season will look like based on these numbers.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a virologist, medical doctor, epidemiologist, or any other expert in the realm of this infectious disease. I am not taking a political stance (though I would like to). I am not advocating for or against the occurence of an NFL season in 2020. These are just the ramblings of a procrastinator that wants some thoughts recorded to revisit in six months to see what I got right.
I address a few main questions:
How will Covid-19 affect the quality of NFL games? Overall, I predict Covid-19 will cause starters to miss games in every single NFL game this year.
Opt outs https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-team-by-team-opt-out-tracker-damien-williams-nate-solder-among-players-who-will-pass-on-2020-season/ 32
test results for first wave of testing https://nfltraderumors.co/2020-nfl-covid-19-list/ As of 07-30-2020 there are 69 players on the reserve/Covid-19 list
The virus will likely spread within teams. Therefore, it is improper to extrapolate these on a per team basis. Extrapolation will conservatively estimate a worst case scenario so I am comfortable doing so.
I will assume these numbers will be steady throughout the season, again being conservative. Every team will miss 2-3 players per game due to Covid-19.
Compare this to Football Outsider’s Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric for perspective. Teams averaged 75 AGL in the 2019 season. If every team loses 2-3 players per game, they will add over 30 AGL to this metric. Imagine a 50% increase in the injury rate of your favorite team. Now imagine this affecting the entire roster instead of the occasional special teams contributor.
Any football fan can imagine what life is like without their starting quarterback (cough Steelers, Jets, Panthers cough). Whats the probability a starting QB misses a game due to Covid-19? As the virus take about two weeks to pass, an infected QB is likely to miss two games at least.
Lets say each team has a static 53 man roster, resulting in 1696 players. If 70 have the virus at any given week (assuming each player gets counted twice before coming off the list), I project 595 players to have contracted Covid-19 be the end of the season. Wow. I didn’t calculate this number until just now. That’s pretty bleak. The probability at least one QB will contract Covid-19 is the complement of the probability no QB contracts Covid-19.
P(Your QB avoids the COVID list) = 0.65 P(No QB lands no the COVID list) = 1 - (0.65)^32 = 1.03092 x 10^-6
If I am a betting man, I guarantee at least a single starting QB will miss a game because of COVID (given the above assumptions which are likely incorrect)
#hyperlink AGL metric here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-adjusted-games-lost-part-i
The Texans and Chiefs reported earlier than any other team, as their first game occurs four days before any other. After the first round of testing, few players have been added to their COVID reserve lists. Perhaps the structure of an NFL team has reduced risky behavior. May that trend extend to other teams? We will find out shortly.
Whats the likelihood of all 256 games being played? How many players must be sick to cancel a game? This number is likely high. Major League Baseball has cancelled several games due to positive COVID tests. However, MLB has the option to schedule double headers later in their season. NFL players oppose Thursday Night Football games for the lack of recovery time between Sunday and Thursday. Even if four days is the absolute minimum between games, the season must be extended to account for cancelled games. I predict the regular season will either end before all 32 teams have played 16 games, or it will be extended before playoffs begin.
It will be fun to revisit these predictions in September.